Before I get into bikes here, I have to take you down a “watch nerd” rabbit hole for a second, please bear with me. For over a century, Baselworld in Switzerland was the most important event in the watch calendar, the place where Rolex, Tudor, Patek Philippe, and everyone else unveiled their new watches to the world. And then, over the course of about two chaotic weeks in April 2020, Rolex, Patek Philippe, Chopard, Chanel, and Tudor all announced together that they would be leaving Baselworld, followed days later by pretty much every other exhibitor. The brands had grown tired of an organizer that kept raising costs, resisted change, and seemed more interested in protecting its own revenue model than serving the industry it was supposed to represent. The philosophy of the organizers caused the demise of Baselworld, and it could never recover. The brands walked out, joined a rival show in Geneva, and Watches & Wonders became the new center of the watch world almost overnight. Baselworld ceased to exist. A show with over a century of history, gone in a fortnight.

But wait, why am I talking about watches to this audience? Well, let’s talk about Frankfurt.

Eurobike is, or has been, the cycling world’s equivalent. The biggest cycling trade show on the planet, held annually in Frankfurt, where manufacturers unveil new bikes and components, where the industry takes stock of itself, where distributors, journalists, and brand people from across the world converge for a few days every summer. For anyone who works in the cycling industry or covers it seriously, Eurobike has been the calendar event. The place where next year’s gear shows up for the first time.

Except right now it’s in trouble. Real trouble.

Eurobike 2025 faced a drop of around 10% in visitor numbers compared with 2024, underlining difficulties that culminated in the withdrawal of German trade associations ZIV and Zukunft Fahrrad, as well as key players such as Bosch eBike Systems from the 2026 edition. Then in January 2026, Shimano (!) announced it will not attend this year’s Eurobike trade show as it plans to “explore different approaches.” Bosch and Shimano, two of the most important names in cycling, gone from the same show in the same year. Being a “watch nerd” myself, this story feels all too familiar.

ZIV and Zukunft Fahrrad said their talks with Eurobike operators regarding the future of the show had “failed,” stating they could not see that operators were equally committed to supporting the measures necessary to make the trade fair fit for the future of the bicycle industry. Claus Fleischer, Bosch’s CEO, said the company no longer saw the fundamental changes required for a successful future for Eurobike. This is almost literally the same complaints we were hearing from watch brands during the Baselworld debacle.

The Baselworld parallel isn’t perfect of course, but still, it gave me flashbacks to that one winding down, as I thoroughly enjoyed visiting the old Bselworld… The Eurobike situation has more to do with a wider industry downturn, the bike market boomed during COVID, collapsed afterwards, and has been working through a painful correction. But the underlying dynamic is recognizable. Eurobike has been attracting fewer visitors and exhibitors since when it started. The organizers have made adjustments for 2026, roughly speaking that would be a shorter event, reduced exhibitor costs and restructured hall layouts, but the biggest players aren’t convinced. And crucially, ZIV has now revealed it is working with determination to develop its own leading international trade fair with a European reach! That is exactly, but EXACTLY, what happened with watches. A rival show gets serious, the big names migrate, and suddenly the original show is the smaller one.

Eurobike’s organizers aren’t blind though. They’ve stated that Eurobike 2026 will be an important milestone in jointly laying the foundation for an enhanced trade fair concept from 2027 onwards. Oh and, important twist to the story, Shimano has actually reversed its withdrawal and confirmed it will attend 2026 after all, which is not a small thing.

A fragmented, weakened Eurobike, or a chaotic transition to a replacement show, further adds uncertainty to an industry already navigating a difficult few years. Now, whether this turns into a full Baselworld-style collapse or a painful but survivable reset probably depends on what happens in Frankfurt in June 2026 and whether the rival show ZIV is planning gains real traction. The ingredients for a Baselworld situation are definitely, absolutely, positively there. The outcome isn’t written yet.